Replication Data for: Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy (OA edition)

Version 2.0
Sohlberg, Jacob; Branham, J. Alexander, 2021, "Replication Data for: Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy (OA edition)", https://doi.org/10.11587/X8UZ60, AUSSDA, V2, UNF:6:n4RftwCz8ZmBnrAeoqWWxA== [fileUNF]
Learn about Data Citation Standards.
Dataset Metrics
105 Downloads
Description
Although polling accuracy increases throughout the election, polls are always at least a little wrong on election day. In this article, we attempt to understand how characteristics of particular elections may make them harder (or easier) to predict. In particular, we focus on estimating the impact of voter turnout, electoral change, and vote buying on polling error. We find support for two of the three hypotheses. There is little evidence that voter turnout affects polling error. However, polling errors tend to be higher where there have been large changes in parties’ vote share from the previous election. We also find that higher prevalence of vote buying may be associated with larger polling errors.
Keyword Public opinion polls, Elections, Election data, Voting behaviour
Related Publication Sohlberg, J. & Branham, J. A. (2020). Just a Difficult Election to Poll? How Context Affects Polling Accuracy. Survey Methods: Insights from the Field. doi: 10.13094/SMIF-2020-00013
License/Data Use Agreement

Custom Dataset Terms

Table
Tree
Filter by
1 to 2 of 2 Files
10661_da_en_v1_1.tab
data/Tabular Data - 9.2 MB
Published Jun 15, 2023
16 Downloads
3033 Variables, 309 Observations UNF:6:n4RftwCz8ZmBnrAeoqWWxA==
Core data file - CSV format - 3033 Variables, 309 Observations
CSVData
10661_sx_en_v1_1.R
documentation/R Syntax - 12.8 KB
Published Jun 15, 2023
10 Downloads
MD5: df378c55140abd3218c262f5333608e0
R script for replication
CodeDocumentation
Edit File

This file has already been deleted (or replaced) in the current version. It may not be edited.

Restrict Access

Restricting limits access to published files. People who want to use the restricted files can request access by default. If you disable request access, you must add information about access to the Terms of Access field.

Learn about restricting files and dataset access in the User Guide.

Enable access request
You must enable request access or add terms of access to restrict file access.
Save Changes
Edit Embargo

The selected file or files have already been published. Contact an administrator to change the embargo date or reason of the file or files.
Delete Files

The file will be deleted after you click on the Delete button.

Files will not be removed from previously published versions of the dataset.

Select File(s)

Please select one or more files.

Share Dataset

Share this dataset on your favorite social media networks.

Continue
Dataset Citations

Citations for this dataset are retrieved from Crossref via DataCite using Make Data Count standards. For more information about dataset metrics, please refer to the User Guide.

Sorry, no citations were found.
Restricted Files Selected

The selected file(s) may not be downloaded because you have not been granted access.

Download Options

The files selected are too large to download as a ZIP.

You can select individual files that are below the 953.7 MB download limit from the files table, or use the Data Access API for programmatic access to the files.

Select File(s)

Please select a file or files to be downloaded.

Restricted Files Selected

The restricted file(s) selected may not be downloaded because you have not been granted access.

Click Continue to download the files you have access to download.

Ineligible Files Selected

Some file(s) cannot be transferred. (They are restricted, embargoed, or not Globus accessible.)

Click Continue to transfer the elligible files.

Delete Dataset

Are you sure you want to delete this dataset and all of its files? You cannot undelete this dataset.

Delete Draft Version

Are you sure you want to delete this draft version? Files will be reverted to the most recently published version. You cannot undelete this draft.

Unpublished Dataset Private URL

Private URL can only be used with unpublished versions of datasets.

Unpublished Dataset Private URL

Are you sure you want to disable the Private URL? If you have shared the Private URL with others they will no longer be able to use it to access your unpublished dataset.

Delete Files

The file(s) will be deleted after you click on the Delete button.

Files will not be removed from previously published versions of the dataset.

Compute

This dataset contains restricted files you may not compute on because you have not been granted access.

Deaccession Dataset

Are you sure you want to deaccession? This is permanent and the selected version(s) will no longer be viewable by the public.

Deaccession Dataset

Are you sure you want to deaccession this dataset? This is permanent an it will no longer be viewable by the public.

Version Differences Details

Please select two versions to view the differences.

Version Differences Details
 
Version:
Last Updated:
Version:
Last Updated:
Select File(s)

Please select a file or files for access request.

Select File(s)

Embargoed files cannot be accessed. Please select an unembargoed file or files for your access request.

Edit Tags

Select existing file tags or create new tags to describe your files. Each file can have more than one tag.

Request Access

  You need to Sign Up or Log In to request access.

Dataset Terms

Please confirm and/or complete the information needed below in order to request access to files in this dataset.

This dataset is made available under the following terms. Please confirm and/or complete the information needed below in order to continue.

Our Community Norms as well as good scientific practices expect that proper credit is given via citation. Please use the data citation shown on the dataset page.

Custom Dataset Terms — the following Custom Dataset Terms have been defined for this dataset.

Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag
Die Datendatei ist lizenziert unter einer Creative Commons Namensnennung - Weitergabe unter gleichen Bedingungen 4.0 International Lizenz.

Creative Commons Lizenzvertrag
Die Dokumentation ist lizenziert unter einer Creative Commons Namensnennung 4.0 International Lizenz.

Mit dem Zugriff auf die Datei(en) erklären Sie sich mit den AUSSDA Nutzungsbedingungen und der Datenschutzerklärung einverstanden.

Creative Commons License
The data file is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Creative Commons License
The documentation material is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

By accessing the file(s) you agree to the AUSSDA Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.

Preview Guestbook

Upon downloading files the guestbook asks for the following information.

Account Information

Package File Download

Use the Download URL in a Wget command or a download manager to download this package file. Download via web browser is not recommended. User Guide - Downloading a Dataverse Package via URL

https://data.aussda.at/api/access/datafile/

Compute Batch
Clear Batch
Dataset Persistent Identifier Change Compute Batch
Compute Batch
Submit for Review

You will not be able to make changes to this dataset while it is in review.

Publish Dataset

Are you sure you want to republish this dataset?

Select if this is a minor or major version update.

Publish Dataset

This dataset cannot be published until Survey Methods: Insights from the Field is published by its administrator.

Publish Dataset

This dataset cannot be published until Survey Methods: Insights from the Field and AUSSDA are published.

Return to Author

Return this dataset to contributor for modification. The reason for return entered below will be sent by email to the author.